DR DOUG QUARRY
In this edition:
1. THE UNITED STATES
1.1 COVID-19 cases reducing across the US
1.2 Progress of the US COVID-19 vaccination program
1.3 US will have enough vaccine for 300 million by the end of May
2. VACCINE DISTRIBUTION, NATIONALISM & HESITANCY
2.1 Inequitable vaccine distribution
2.2 Tracker of dates of COVAX vaccine distribution and start of vaccination campaigns
2.3 Italy blocks export of 250,000 AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Australia
2.4 France uses only quarter of AstraZeneca vaccine doses
2.5 Australian businessman and ex-politician feeds vaccine hesitancy
3. VARIANTS
3.1 Eric Topol has again updated his variant summary table
3.2 Variants are “Innocent until proven guilty”
3.3 Sao Paulo to shut down as Brazil nears Pfizer deal
3.4 New Russian variant of COVID-19 detected in Queensland hotel quarantine
1.1 COVID-19 cases reducing across the US
The number of cases of COVID-19 is reducing across the US. This graphic from The Economist is striking for the marked and consistent decline in every state.
1.2 Progress of the US COVID-19 vaccination program
Andy Slavitt has tweeted about the first doses of vaccine progress
• 1 in 9 adults
• 1 in 6 aged 50-64
• 46% aged 65-74
• 64% aged over 75
Now averaging 2 million shots/day over the last week
1.3 US will have enough vaccine for 300 million by the end of May
Recently announced by President Biden, this is an acceleration of two months over the prior outlook.
2. VACCINE DISTRIBUTION, NATIONALISM & HESITANCY
2.1 Inequitable vaccine distribution
Only 24 countries have vaccinated more than 1% of their population.
2.2 Tracker of dates of COVAX vaccine distribution and start of vaccination campaigns
COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (abbreviated as COVAX) is a global initiative aimed at equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines led by:
• GAVI: the global vaccine alliance
• WHO: World Health Organisation
• CEPI: Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, and others.
The GAVI website now contains this news tracker
4 March
• 487,200 doses arrive in the Philippines
3 March
• First doses arrive in Rwanda
• 820,000 doses arrive in Sudan
• First doses arrive in Kenya
• First doses arrive in Rwanda
2 March
• First doses arrive in the Gambia
• First doses arrive in DRC
• 324,000 doses arrive in Cambodia
• 624,000 doses arrive in Angola
• 3.94 million doses arrive in Nigeria
• 1 March 2021 12:10 CET
• Côte d’Ivoire starts its first vaccinations
• Ghana starts its first vaccinations
• Half a million doses arrived in Côte d’Ivoire from Mumbai
• South Korea receives 117,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as a self-financing participant in COVAX Facility
• 600,000 COVAX vaccines arrive in Ghana: beginning of global roll-out
Italy blocks export of 250,000 AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Australia 26 Feb
The Guardian reports that: “Italy has blocked the export of 250,000 doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to Australia in an escalation of a row with the Anglo-Swedish company.
“The EU has been engaged in high-profile row with AstraZeneca after the company informed officials of a 24 February shortfall in deliveries this quarter due to a production problem in one of its EU sites.”
2.3 Italy blocks export of 250,000 AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Australia
Reuters reports that: “The European Commission and Italy have blocked a shipment of AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine destined for Australia after the drug manufacturer failed to meet its EU contract commitments, two sources said on Thursday.
“The sources said AstraZeneca had requested permission from the Italian Government to export some 250,000 doses from its Anagni plant, near Rome.
“The Italian Government refused and the European Commission supported its decision, the sources said. An EU source in Brussels said national authorities had the final say in such matters.”
2.4 France uses only quarter of AstraZeneca vaccine doses
Reuters reports that: “France has used only a quarter of its AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses…as of Feb 28, well below a target set at 80-85%.”
The BBC reports that some of the reluctance for the French to use the AstraZeneca vaccine comes from President Macron’s claim that it was “quasi-ineffective” for people over 65.
“But the UK, and a number of other countries including India, Mexico and Argentina, have approved its use for all age groups.
“’Current evidence does not suggest any lack of protection against COVID-19 in people aged 65 or over who receive the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca,’ the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) chief executive, Dr June Raine, said in a statement.
“’The data we have show that the vaccine produces a strong immune response in the over-65s, and that it is safe.’”
2.5 Australian businessman and ex-politician feeds vaccine hesitancy
Clive Palmer has published this full-page advertisement in “The Australian” – the widest circulating newspaper in Australia.
3. VARIANTS
3.1 Eric Topol has again updated his variant summary table
Prof Topol comments:
• Vaccines work well vs B.1.1.7 and vs severe infections for all 3 variants to date • Immune evasion and vaccine efficacy reduction more with B.351 than P.1
3.2 Variants are “innocent until proven guilty”
This discussion regarding variants between Dr John White, Medical Editor of WebMD and Prof Eric Topol is highly recommended.
While many variants are now being discussed, only a few turn out to be of importance. Some points from the conversation:
1. The three main attributes of variants that worry us are:
• Are they more infectious?
• Are they more virulent (cause more severe and/or fatal illness)?
• Can they evade vaccine-produced immunity (immune evasion)?
We do not have any variants with all three of those properties. However, the UK variant is more infectious and more virulent.
2. While we wait for new vaccine supplies, we should consider alternative vaccination plans: get more people vaccinated, including delaying the second dose to 6-8 weeks after the first; giving a single dose to people with prior COVID-19 infection; and giving a half-dose of the Moderna vaccine.
3. Many US states are relaxing mitigation strategies, which is the wrong approach right now because we may be facing our biggest challenge yet with the UK variant.
4. Researchers are making claims and sending pre-preprints – which are not even on a preprint server yet – to journalists but not to the biomedical community.
3.3 Sao Paulo to shut down as Brazil nears Pfizer deal
Reuters reports that Brazil has set another daily record for COVID-19 deaths as a resurgence of the virus led Sao Paulo state to shut businesses and the government to try to close vaccine deals with Pfizer and Janssen.
There are questions in Brazil about the suitability of Brazil’s current vaccine portfolio, consisting mainly of 225m doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine and 120m doses of Sinovac, against the P1 variant.
The Government said it intended to buy 100m doses from Pfizer and 38m from Janssen / Johnson & Johnson (J&J). Pfizer doses are expected to arrive in May and Janssen / J&J by August.
3.4 New Russian variant of COVID-19 detected in Queensland hotel quarantine
Nine News reports that: “Passengers aboard a Qatar Airways flight that landed in Brisbane last month will have their quarantine period extended after it was revealed several people on board tested positive for the Russian strain of coronavirus.” The relatively long article concludes with “health officials know little about the new Russian variant so far.”
